The question facing all fantasy football players this year is if they should spend big auction dollars or an early draft pick on top QB talent. In most seasons that is a question you need to ask yourself and 2010 is no different.
There is a case to be made that there are 4 QB tiers of quality to pick from. The top 3 tiers is made up of the top 10 QBs so if you don’t want to pay to play then 11-25 should be where you are looking for your diamond in the rough. I don’t think it is the worst strategy; I call it rotisserie QB, the idea is that you grab your QB in the last few rounds or only spend a $1 or $2 in an auction and play the waiver wire each week to find a QB with a good defensive matchup to exploit. It can be a winning strategy and you can find a break out QB along the way. It allows you to focus a lot more resources on your other roster spots.
If you are committed to a higher grad QB which in my opinion there is only 9 or 10 (depending on Favre) which are any better than the rotisserie method then you got to decide how much resources your willing to commit to the position. Now in a 10 team league everyone could get a decent QB, but in 12 team or greater sized leagues there are not enough to go around so they are a bit more of a commodity.
Let’s start at the top and work our way down according to the Fantasy Fortunes website:
1. Aaron Rodgers $45
2. Drew Brees $45
These two represent the most upside at the position. Rodgers is a huge part of the Packers offense which looks to be strong again this year. He throws a lot and as a bonus runs more than anyone else at the position racking up 5 running TDs last year. I expect similar rushing numbers again and slightly worse passing.
Brees has the keys to what could be the highest scoring offense for 2010 and they are stacked with weapons. He should continue to put up huge numbers. I think he is a little safer then Rodgers.
The next step down is
3. Peyton Manning $35
Manning is a top tier QB selling at a $10 discount. His weapons are still in place and he is the model of consistency. A very safe play and he has got to be hungry after last season. The concern here is they do tend to sit him down at the end of the season hurting fantasy owners come championship week. I am not as concerned this year as I don’t think the Colts will lock up home field as fast this year. I worry about that a bit with Rodgers if Favre does not come back because without Favre the Vikings will not push the Pack to win the division.
The next QBs represent a significant tier break:
4. Matt Schaub $25
5. Phillip Rivers $21
6. Tom Brady $18
7. Tony Romo $13
These 4 are all running very good offenses. Schaub looks poised to explode though injury has been an issue. Rivers has shown he can do it and represents decent value. Brady has never been so cheap though Moss is aging, Brady at this price could be the steal of the QB field. I included Romo in this tier as I think we have him a little undervalued and his connection with Austin could make for a big season.
Our final tier of QBs that I would be willing to commit significant resources on before abandoning the position for rotisserie QB is the following:
8. Brett Favre $11
9. Donovan McNabb $10
10. Joe Flacco $9
There are clearly guys below this who are better than the waiver wire but I don’t know that they are worth what you will have to give up to get them. Favre scares me and I personally would leave him alone, though if he repeats his performance from last year someone will get great value out of him. McNabb is going into a new offense and is tough to read but he as the talent to put up good numbers. Flacco on the other hand adds Boldin and really could come into his own this year. I will be targeting him as a value play if I can get him at the right price.
What should guide your decision in selecting a QB is how many points of separation do you gain or lose picking one QB over another. If you believe Aaron Rodgers will out score the $10-$11 QBs by 60 points then you have to decide would an extra $35 on your currently slated #2 RB give you 60 more points than the guy you would otherwise have in the #2RB slot. I would argue that at a minimum you need to get the same points of separation at QB or more. It is easier to replace a starting QB with someone who scores consistent points then it is to replace a RB with a consistent scorer. But if you think you can get quality backup RBs and still afford the top tier QBs then I say go for it because they do offer a safe place to get some good separation on your competition.
If you skip the top QBs and go rotisserie style this year be sure to check Fantasy Fortunes every week for FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) bid amounts. We will be giving advice on who to add and what to bid.
We will also be updating weekly player’s season long value with auction values to help you assess the value of your team and to evaluate trades.
Good luck with your draft or auction.