Table of Contents
Sunday is almost here, and we’ve got you covered with betting angles, notes and picks for each Week 1 NFL game.
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
Spread: Baltimore -7
Total: 44 points
Joe Flacco will be getting the start against his former team in the place of the injured Zach Wilson, and if this was a homecoming game in Baltimore we might take the Jets. Instead, we’re betting on Lamar Jackson, whether he signs a new contract or not, starting the year strong. In the four Week 1s Jackson has had, the Ravens are averaging 42.75 points.
Betting: Ravens over 26.5 points (-115 DK)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Spread: Indianapolis -7
Total: 46 points
The Colts should be able to take care of business against a weak Texans defense, leaning on Jonathan Taylor for another big season. It’s a bit laughable how bad Taylor’s odds are to score a touchdown this weekend, -240 to -320 on most books. Houston is a generous team to running back touchdowns, but out of spite, let’s attack the books a different way. Nyheim Hines is the backup running back, and is expected to have a solid role as a third-down back in this offense. While squares put Taylor in their touchdown parlays, let’s bet on their heartbreak in the form of his backup.
Betting: Nyheim Hines TD (+325 CZR)
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Spread: Miami -3.5
Total: 46.5 points
The Dolphins have had the Patriots number of late, sweeping them last season and winning three straight overall. With added weapons this season, hopes are high for Miami. We’re banking on Tua trumping Jones in the battle of former Bama quarterbacks.
Betting: Dolphins -3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Cincinnati -6.5
Total: 44 points
The Bengals beat the Steelers by a combined 45 points in two games last season, and with a shored-up offensive line, this Cincy aerial attack should have its way against opponents to begin the year. Congrats to Mitch Trubisky on the career revival opportunity in Pittsburgh, but we’re betting on an easy home opener for the defending AFC Champs.
Betting: Bengals -6.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears
Spread: San Francisco -7
Total: 40 points
This game could quietly be one of the more exciting contests Sunday. We have two young, mobile quarterbacks in Trey Lance and Justin Fields, and something about a QB using his legs more than expected can open up some chaos channels. We see both of these secondaries as potentially vulnerable, it’s why we bet on some long reception props. We’re betting that both Fields and Lance author some scoring drives in a fun, ugly game.
Betting: Over 40 points
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions
Spread: Philadelphia -4
Total: 48.5 points
This 4-point spread is befuddling to us. Is this really because people got an inside look of Dan Campbell crying on Hard Knocks every week? Detroit is down their All-Pro center and their starting right guard. The big boy Jordan Davis, along with Pro Bowl DTs Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave, are going to wreak havoc on Detroit. Blowout potential, let’s take an alternate spread.
Betting: Eagles -9.5 (+180 DK)
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Spread: New Orleans -5.5
Total: 43 points
Much was made of Kyle Pitts finding the end zone only once as a rookie. Pitts is the clear top receiver in Atlanta, and with New Orleans running into some secondary issues, we’re thinking Pitts has a big game on Sunday. Matching last season’s touchdown total is a good place to start.
Betting: Kyle Pitts TD (+230 FD)
Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers
Spread: Pick ’em
Total: 42 points
We’re excited to see what a ticked-off Baker Mayfield will do against his former team. It could be a little bit of everything, but we do think the Panthers will emerge victorious. Let’s cover our bases with good Baker and bad Baker and load up a fun SGP for this one.
Betting: Baker Mayfield 1+ INT, 1+ Passing TD, Panthers ML (+310 DK)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington Commanders
Spread: Washington -2.5
Total: 44 points
This Jacksonville secondary is likely to be an issue this season, and who better to take advantage than Terry McLaurin? McLaurin works the intermediate-to-deep ranges of the field, and has likely the best quarterback he’s ever worked with throwing to him, which is a low bar we admit. McLaurin went for 60+ yards in eight games this year, and should have some big plays on Sunday.
Betting: Terry McLaurin over 58.5 receiving yards (-130 DK)
New York Giants @ Tennessee Titans
Spread: Tennessee -5.5
Total: 44 points
The Giants have a new regime in town with Brian Daboll coming over from Buffalo. Daboll wasn’t shy to use Josh Allen’s legs as a weapon, and Daniel Jones has shown he can move out of the pocket and pick up yards on the ground. This is a bit of a blind take, but we’re thinking Jones will pick up a few chunk runs against the Titans, and we have a reasonable line to cross for the Giants quarterback.
Betting: Daniel Jones over 19.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Los Angeles -3.5
Total: 52.5 points
This game figures to be an absolute treat from start to finish. Last year’s season finale saw the Raiders win 35-32 in overtime, and with one of the highest point totals of the day a repeat showing is projected. Both offenses figure to be among the league’s highest-scoring, with the bulk of the work being done through the air. It’s chalky, but expect to see plenty of this game on RedZone this weekend.
Betting: Over 52.5 points
Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Kansas City -6
Total: 54 points
The Cardinals typically start hot before faltering down the stretch, but with some injuries to key offensive contributors in Zach Ertz and Rondale Moore, it’s hard to envision Arizona keeping up with Kansas City. The Chiefs tend to hot, averaging 36.3 points per game over their past four Week 1 games. We’ll bet on that continuing.
Betting: Chiefs -6
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Green Bay -1.5
Total: 47 points
This is a modest spread favoring the team with an elite defense and defending MVP quarterback. Where would this number be if Green Bay still had Davante Adams? We have a feeling the Packers take care of business against their division rival, and we have our eyes on Sammy Watkins finding the end zone in his Packers debut. Rodgers has been quite complimentary of his new receiver this summer, and the Vikings allowed the sixth-most touchdowns to receivers last season.
Betting: Sammy Watkins TD (+295 DK)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Tampa Bay -2.5
Total: 50.5 points
For the second straight season the Bucs and Cowboys will play in Week 1. Tampa Bay snuck by Dallas last season, and a more comfortable win feels in store this season. The loss of star LT Tyron Smith cannot go understated for the Cowboys. With Michael Gallup still on the mend, this is one of the weakest supporting casts Dak Prescott has had.
Betting: Buccaneers -2.5
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Denver -6.5
Total: 45 points
Russell Wilson’s homecoming will headline Monday Night Football, and it shouldn’t be much of a game. Denver is the far better team on both ends, and Wilson is worlds better than Seahawks starting QB Geno Smith. This could get ugly.
Betting: Broncos -6.5
Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders. Griffin can be found on Twitter @griffybets.